Usual two parties pass first round in French elections

In recent weeks there was a lot of talk about the left and the hard right making progress, but in the end it was the usual center-right and center-left who moved into the second (and final) round in France. The left did not fair as well as expected though the extreme right National Front gathered 20% of the vote, trailing the center-left and the center-right on Sunday. Some have suggested that Sarkozy will push to the right with the anti-immigration voters who strongly supported the extreme right though others believe his moves to the far right have done more harm than good. The Guardian:

Partial results from the beginning of the count showed Hollande – a former Socialist party leader, rural MP and self-styled Mr Normal – with a clear lead at more than 28%, compared with Sarkozy on about 26%. Hollande's is one of the left's best ever results and will raise momentum for next month's final run-off. The Socialist party is seeking to return to the presidency for the first time since François Mitterrand's re-election in 1988. But Sarkozy's total will be seen as a personal failure. It is the first time an outgoing president has failed to win a first-round vote in the past 50 years and makes it harder for Sarkozy to regain momentum. The final runoff vote between Hollande and Sarkozy now depends on a delicate balance of how France's total of rightwing and leftwing voters line up.

A key point to note from Sunday's vote is that this was the first time since 1958 that the incumbent did not receive the most votes in the first round. Even though Sarkozy was not far behind Hollande, many consider the first round a defeat for the current president.

Why is Sarkozy so disliked in France?

The BBC has an interesting read about theories on why Sarkozy is so disliked. My own two cents is that France is a fairly conservative (with a small "c") country and he thrives on being flashy, which people strongly dislike. His behavior was perhaps acceptable in his suburban neighborhood of Neuilly-sur-Seine where flashiness is more of the norm.

He was already well known nationally following his positions in various center-right government but apparently his tendencies were not well known enough. As a junior member of previous governments, he also was working for someone else rather than being the lead. Once he stepped out and assumed his role of leader, the more present he was the less people liked him.

What was previously viewed (by some) as action was eventually regarded (by many more) as little more than hyperactivity without direction. There was always talk of change but in the end, there wasn't a great deal of actual change. One could also argue that France, like many countries, never really wanted change in the first place.

One of the great disappointments has been Sarkozy's failure to ever move forward with his earlier talk of affirmative action. He often spoke about the issue (which in France is considered to be a conservative issue and hated by the left) and his first government was unusual in that it was not an all white male team. Once he ran into trouble he abandoned that diversity.

He also abandoned any effort to fix the glaringly obvious problems of racism in France. Some argue that he played the race card too often in his attempt to win the far right vote, leaving the problem for another day.

By Monday there should be a much clearer view of where the election will go in the second round. A few political analysts are suggesting there is much more support for Sarkozy among voters but until the votes are counted, we won't know for sure.

France ready to send Sarkozy into retirement

The first round of elections will be this weekend and while the current president, Nicolas Sarkozy, will likely make it to the second round, it's doubtful that he will win. If anything, this election is more about him than it is with anyone else. His primary competitor is the Socialist François Hollande, who has the charisma of Michael Dukakis. The left is about as excited for Hollande as Democrats were for Dukakis back in the day.

Fortunately for Hollande, Sarkozy has a very limited appeal in the broader population. His flashy style was never well received by the conservative country and his inability to get along with others has not helped either. One gets the impression that he was the kid in the playground who wouldn't let anyone else play in "his" sandbox. The economic crisis is certainly an issue, but it's just one of many reasons why voters will likely send him away.

One change that is likely to occur with an Hollande victory is a move away from austerity, which is clobbering Europe and the UK. He may not be an exciting candidate, but Hollande is aware of the problems triggered by austerity, and will break with those failed policies.

Assuming an Hollande victory, will there be any significant changes? Changes yes, but nothing extreme for most people. Much like other countries, it's increasingly difficult to find big differences between the so-called left and the so-called right in France. (In France we're talking of the center-left and center-right. The "left" or the "right" is generally what people consider the extremes, such as Le Pen on the right or the Communists on the left.) There is a lot of discontent among many that the old party lines of a few decades ago are too blurred, much like they are in the US.

More on the upcoming French elections via Reuters.